Movies – “Avatar” Will Be Both a Hit AND a Bomb

So I finally got a load of the new trailer for “Avatar”, along with the rest of the Internet.

First things first, the next person who greets complaints about the story with “you need to see it in 3D” gets a punch to the balls. If the script blows, 3D isn’t going to do anything for it. And, as much as it kills me to say this, boy does this trailer make it look like this movie blows.

I have to ask, who really wrote this movie? Ed Zwick? This whole “going among the other culture and being their Jesus” is his usual shtick. No way James Cameron actually wrote this movie, with its cliche plot and cliche dialogue. I’m also wondering how nobody noticed this entire plot is essentially furry porn. Think about it: you go to sleep as a human, wake up as a way more awesome cat-man, meet a cat-chick, and bone. Seriously, hands up everybody who DOESN’T think Sam Worthington stays a cat-man at the end of the movie.

That’s about all I’m going to say about the trailer, aside from the fact that it feels the need to remind everybody of every hit James Cameron has ever made. Now let’s talk about its box office.

$600 million worldwide, at minimum. Probably more like $800 million. At the very least, this has the visual goods to be popular eye candy, and Cameron waited until “Titanic” was out of everybody’s mind, so people are rooting for him again. And $800 million is great in absolute terms.

Unfortunately, this movie cost anywhere between $250 million to $315 million to make. In fact, there are rumors going around that it cost $400 million, and that’s before advertising, prints, and all those other expenses. In fact, add those in and I’m not sure Fox is escaping with a price tag of less than $400 million all told.

In other words, “Avatar” is going to have to do “Dark Knight” level business to make money in theaters. My estimate means that if they’re REALLY lucky, they’ll break even. Yeah, yeah, Cameron made “Titanic”, but this isn’t “Titanic.” “Titanic” largely made its money on teenage girls going to see it forty times, and basically being a cheesy old-movie romance with a James Cameron disaster movie stapled on. Who’s going to show up and see “Avatar” forty times, aside from furries?

OK, one more bit about the trailer: the characters are cartoons, the dialogue is terrible, and the movie looks like furry porn crossed with “Ferngully”.

But that shot of the Snidely Whiplash bad guy casually drinking coffee as they fire missiles into a village is pretty damn cool.

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9 Responses to “Movies – “Avatar” Will Be Both a Hit AND a Bomb”

  1. Nestadious Says:

    I’m really looking forward to this movie, but I dont disagree with anything you said. Except the titanic having teen girls to see it over and over. This had all the nerds since aliens, terminator one and two, abyss, and too a awsome-bad movie extent, true lies. If this movie is half as fun as those movies, i’ll see it atleast three times in 3d I-Max where I have to pay.

  2. body armor Says:

    Mr. Cameron has done it again. Avatar looks awesome. I cannot wait until it comes out. The CGI is makes me druel. Finally there is a film to get excited about.

  3. Dillon Says:

    I disagree that Titanic mostly made its money based on teenage girls going to see it over and over again. That is an overstated myth. Why do people, particularly men, always try to downplay the sheer brilliance of this film? I’m a man and can admit that this film was great storytelling. Everyone (EVERYONE) wanted to see this film back in 1997 and 1998; it was the film to see. Guys wanted to see it just as much as women because of the special effects; we had never seen special effects as impressive as that before. It was like the ship was really there in front of us.

    The reason Titanic was so big at the box office was due to its mass appeal — romance, great drama, groundbreaking special effects, music…and even that overplayed Celine Dion song. Titanic largely appealed to critics as well. It is critically acclaimed for a reason. If it was just about teenage girls having loved it, then the Twilight films would be just as big.

    • seitzeeing Says:

      They say teenage girls made it a monster because they did. This isn’t received wisdom: it’s what the studio marketing execs figured out after it became the biggest hit of all time. People downplay it as a movie because frankly it’s his weakest movie in terms of script. The script is half a cheesy romance, half a huge destructive spectacle. It’s technically and visually accomplished, but William Goldman was right: ten years later, nobody cares about it. It’s not BAD, but I don’t know too many people who revisit it.

      None of this is to try and take away from your enjoyment: I’m just explaining my perspective.

      And you’re forgetting, everybody turned up opening weekend because nobody was sure whether it was good or a disaster. Luckily it played to the house.

  4. Dillon Says:

    I forgot to add the actors — for some reason, Leonardo DiCaprio’s popularity was bigger than even Brad Pitt’s had been at the time, and he had good chemistry with Kate Winslet.

    As for Avatar, I am skeptical of it. But I was also skeptical of Titanic and felt that it would not be good. We’ll see.

  5. Ed Sanders Says:

    Well let’s see it just past 1 billion, hmm you my friend know nothing about people and what they want. Please end your blog you have nothing that anyone needs.
    thanks just trying to clean up all this digital noise one bad blog at a time.

    • seitzeeing Says:

      Holy shit, did you seriously spend your time searching for people who got “Avatar”‘s gross wrong just to tell them to end their blogs? And that’s how you decide a blog is bad?

      Get a job, kid.

  6. Cristopher Fennewald Says:

    I read that he was quite keen do a Eastenders cameo Lol. Sounds a bit dodgy to me. There’s a bit of me that kind of wishes this is true lol.

  7. Sachin Says:

    Zack Snyder’s done a fantastic job with the movie Watchmen. Very different concept all together. 6 legendary superheroes fighting crime in alternate 1985 America. Check out their facebook page http://tinyurl.com/facebook-watchmen

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